Georgia senate race polls real clear politics

Looking for the Senate Forecast? Without it, Democrats would need to win another red-leaning state such as Texas, Alaska, or Ohio, to reclaim the Senate, states that present far more difficult paths to victory. Two years later, the race for a full term between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican Herschel Walker also moved into a post-election runoff.

As in the Senate primary, uncertainty remains high, with 49% of respondents undecided.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Aug. 12, 2025

Senate

One of the tightest 2026 US Senate races is sure to be found in the Peach State of Georgia and a new statewide poll already confirms a developing toss-up general election.

The TIPP Poll organization released the results of their new survey (July 28-Aug.

Savannah area Congressman Buddy Carter (R-Pooler) would pull within 44-40 percent of Sen. Ossoff.

Therefore, the early TIPP general election poll already showing a dead heat comes with little surprise.

Before the general election begins, Republicans are likely to face a tough primary campaign where the top two finishers in the May 19 GOP nomination contest advance into a June 16 runoff election.

TIPP also surveyed the likely Republican primary voters and found Rep.

Collins leading Rep. Carter and Mr. Dooley, 25-19-7 percent. According to the related ballot test, Sen. Ossoff’s edge over Rep. Collins would be a scant 45-44 percent.

The other Republican candidates also poll well against Sen. Ossoff but draw less support than Rep. Collins. Georgia is a state Democrats can win even without a clear advantage, as demonstrated in the 2022 Senate race, when Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock defeated Republican Herschel Walker in a runoff by 2.8 points, when the Generic Congressional Ballot had Republicans favored.

In the Senate race, Democratic Sen.

Jon Ossoff also benefits from incumbency.

With this backdrop, we can expect another series of close Peach State elections led by its Senate and open Governor races. His receipts through the second quarter of 2025 top $3.5 million, but that includes a loan to the campaign of $2 million.

In the 2024 presidential vote, Trump defeated President Biden, 50.7 – 48.5 percent by a more comfortable margin of 115,100 votes from more than 5.2 million cast ballots, but still a close final tally.

Additionally, Georgia is also one of the few states that holds a post-general election runoff should no candidate receive majority support (Mississippi is another and Louisiana is changing from their jungle primary/December runoff system to a traditional primary and general election beginning in 2026), and the ’26 Senate race advancing into political overtime is certainly a distinct possibility.

The 2020 presidential race saw Joe Biden slipping past President Trump by only 11,779 votes from almost 5 million cast ballots. Familiarity with the Republican candidates is not particularly high, however. The real battle would then come in the general election, where Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff is expected to have a significant advantage.

The poll from Rosetta Stone/InsiderAdvantage found that in the primary, Collins led with 25%, followed by Rep.

Buddy Carter at 20%, and former Alabama football coach Derek Dooley at 12%. In 2024, Donald Trump carried Georgia by just 2.2 points.

These narrow margins give Democrats an edge in Georgia, similar to other swing states where small shifts can decide outcomes. His cash-on-hand total exceeds $4 million.

Rep. Dooley, who recently became an official candidate, will file his first campaign financial disclosure report on Sept.

This page is split into three sections. Already, Sen. Ossoff is the top fundraiser in the country after the latest disclosure reports became public.

The Senator, since his original election in 2020, has raised almost $42 million, but spent $30.8 million largely to clear expenses from the ’20 campaign and to support his substantial fundraising operation.